Grayscale’s BCH trust loses $1.6M in value as hard fork begins

Khali Vakka
4 min readNov 15, 2020

Users have sent more than $300M BCH through exchanges since Nov. 1, while assets under management at the crypto fund manager’s Bitcoin Cash Trust have decreased.

The value of assets under management for crypto fund manager Grayscale Investments’ Bitcoin Cash Trust has fallen $1.6 million following the announcement that the crypto asset would be forking on Nov. 15.

According to data from Coin Dance, the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network has now split into two blockchains. Currently, miner action appears to be favoring the community-driven Bitcoin Cash Node, or BCHN. Crypto exchange Binance’s pool was responsible for mining block 661,647 — the last common block before the fork.

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At the time of publication, miners have mined roughly 27 blocks for BCHN and none for Bitcoin ABC, or BCHA.

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Since the Nov. 15 fork was announced, crypto users have generally been sending more BCH through exchanges, depositing more than $300 million of the tokens in November. While Grayscale has seemingly added to its holdings of BCHG shares in that time, the value of assets under management in its Bitcoin Cash Trust has decreased. According to updates posted to the crypto fund manager’s Twitter account, the firm had $46.8 million in assets under management for the BCH trust on Friday, a drop of $1.6 million since Nov. 9.

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The BCHN fork emerged in response to Bitcoin ABC’s announcement it would introduce a new “Coinbase rule” diverting 8% of block rewards to a development fund controlled by BCHA lead developer Amaury Sechet. Proponents of BCHN have insisted the rule is not needed, claiming they can fund the blockchain without this development or mining tax. BCHN’s dominance in addition to community support had suggested the fork would emerge as the dominant blockchain.

While the Bitcoin Cash price has experienced volatility since the fork was first announced, it surged to more than $276 on Oct. 23 and has generally been moving between a $230-$280 price corridor since falling more than 26% in early September. Bitcoin Cash is currently trading at $245.87, having fallen 4% in the last 24 hours, while Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $16,000 barrier to $15,903.

Increasing signs of whales taking profits

A seller aggressively sold Bitcoin on Bybit on Nov. 15. Order flows show that there were sell orders worth around $3.5 million on average consecutively over several hours.

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Based on the abrupt large-scale sell order, CL suggested that this may result in two scenarios.

First, the seller could get engulfed and cause a squeeze, which might cause the BTC price to increase. Second, it could continue to apply selling pressure on BTC. The trader wrote:

“Approx 2 hours ago, someone aggressive sold almost ~100M on Bybit, a 3rd of the sells are opens, personally pretty curious to see what happens if this seller/shorter does get engulfed, or if he is let free.”

Meanwhile, other major exchanges have spotted large deposits over the last 24 hours. United States-based cryptocurrency exchange Gemini saw a 9,000 BTC deposit, according to the data from CryptoQuant.

Whales typically utilize exchanges with strict compliance and strong regulatory measures, which include platforms like Coinbase and Gemini.

Considering the large Bitcoin deposit into Gemini, which is worth $143 million, a pseudonymous researcher known as “Blackbeard” said it is time to be cautious.

Just weekend volatility?

As CL noted, Bitcoin’s current market structure is different from the previous cycle. For instance, when BTC was at $16,000 in 2017, the market was extremely overheated with extreme volatility. The trader said:

“Back in 2017, when we pumped from 10k, 15, into 20k, we had OKEx weekly futures trade in 1000$ contangos, now we’re here with quarterlies only 100$ above.”

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Khali Vakka
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I Never Try To Like Others Because I’m Unique.